American Hustle: I hate using “American” in titles. It’s especially disingenuous when smart writers use it (e.g. American Beauty). It’s like you’re hedging your bet between idiot jingoists and snarky loafers. That said, I debated seeing this before realizing for the millionth time that I could stay at home and discuss literature with my cat instead.
Director David O. Russell is talented, but a total asshole. He’s infamous for physically abusing crew, and there’s leaked video of him terrorizing Lily Tomlin on the set of ‘I Heart Huckabees.’ George Clooney actually grabbed him by the throat on the set of ‘Three Kings’ after Russell head-butted Clooney for intervening. However, his body of work is pretty strong, and he keeps getting nominated. Also, none of the films on the list have this level of buzz regarding the female leads. That said, since ‘Argo’ won last year, it’s really unlikely that a goofier heist type thing wins this go round.
(25 to 1)
Captain Phillips: This is the death-nail in pirates being fun. Remember how pirates were either bloodthirsty and badass or drunk and inept? Ugh, now they’re menacing in a real way and strangely sympathetic? Garbage. Real piracy has made the dream of a flamboyant life at sea just depressing.
Tom Hanks is an enigma to me. Sure, he’s a good actor, but it still seems like the fact that he can competently play serious roles after being a comedic typecast in the 80s just mesmerizes everyone. Yeah, he’s a great everyman when in compromising positions, but that’s been his jam for decades, and there are lots of superior actors who never get nominated. I suppose it’s better than being Robin Williams, who just gets creepy and sad when he stops acting like a 10 year-old with ADD.
(30 to 1)
Dallas Buyers Club: I’m so thrilled about this cast pairing because it’s like the battle of the divergent pretty boys. Both rose to fame as vacuous heartthrobs, but Matthew McConaughey did zero to fight this distinction, while Jared Leto might as well have worn a t-shirt that read “I’m actually deep and competent” for the last 20 years to fight the feeling that he was a laconic typecast as Jordan Catalano in My So-Called Life.
I can only imagine the worst case scenario if you were a woman courting either one.
McConaughey: He wakes up to a disappointed you. “Oh…yeah, we were gonna bang, but I just got on the bongos and forgot. Hee-heh-heh-heh…that’s so me.”
Leto: You’re about to kiss when he begins reciting poetry he wrote about this very moment, insisting you both maintain unblinking eye contact during the 45-minute opus.
It’s shocking that this movie wasn’t made in the 90s. In a sense it’s kind of retro-refreshing to see an AIDS movie come out now, but the whole “things may be different now, but look how they were” move doesn’t tend to resonate, even if this is an unexpected take.
(10 to 1)
Gravity: This one needs to start with an etymology: ‘gravity’ comes from the Latin ‘gravitas,’ which is basically mortal severity. Sir Isaac Newton named this inarguable force after reputedly getting hit on the head with an apple, a claim which would probably have been debunked by Howard Zinn had Newton gone on to slaughter countless indigenous people, but thankfully Newton is one of the few historical figures who seems benign even by non-hegemonic accounts. Anyway, so Newton gets hit on the head by a hanging fruit and names the force after something of inarguable seriousness. Lighten the fuck up, Isaac.
Director Alfonso Cuaron isn’t by any means a bad director, but let’s just think about his greatest hits before we start proposing. ‘Y Tu Mama Tambien’ means ‘and your mama too’ and is basically a road trip version of American Pie that lacks a Stifler character. Subtitles make everything deep, which is why I put on the French language subtitles while screening Road House; it’s immediately classy that way. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban is not terrible, as far as those films go, but as someone who has read all the books, that particular one was 100% the most filmable, and Cuaron managed to get a bad performance out of Gary Oldman, who is basically always great, and Sirius Black is one of my favorite characters, so fuck that movie, and fuck ‘Gravity.’ Technical achievements won’t make me care about Sandra Bullock…unless she has to jump a bus over a freeway gap, which seems unlikely here.
(5 to 1)
Her: When I first saw ‘Being John Malkovich,’ I cannot explain the delirious bliss I felt for the first 25 minutes. I’m a sucker for absurdism, especially when people have genuine human reactions to insane circumstances, and while the movie was uneven overall, it made me a believer in Spike Jonze. That said, I’m scared to see ‘Her.’ Supposedly it goes beyond the whole “oooo technology as a substitute for human interaction ooooo” oeuvre, and Joaquin Phoenix is a widely considered a good actor when he’s not the face of the worst-received meta farce to date (there will be a million worse ones, and his will probably be considered brilliant in 20 years by annoying know-it-alls). But I don’t know, neo-modernism is such a slippery slope, and can so easily cannibalize its points…eh, you’ve stopped paying attention.
The only real problem I have with this whole thing is that it’s Scarlett Johanssen’s voice. We know who she is!!! We can picture her!!! Having this weird fourth wall break may make this easier for the audience to fall for a disembodied voice, but doesn’t it go against the point of the film?
(50 to 1)
Nebraska: Damn, you’re getting cocky, Alexander Payne. A black-and-white road trip movie with a foregone conclusion? Yikes. But this one might be awesome, as Alexander Payne is probably the best depressing-plot-as-comedy writer/director of the last 30 years. He also went to UCLA TFT Grad School, and made more of it than I did, so kudos to him for that as well.
This one has no chance. Expanding the nomination pool was a really good idea, because now a lot of the better movies that went under the radar have a chance to be nominated, but seriously, it’s like befriending a celebrity on Facebook and soliciting him or her in your relationship status. Nebraska winning best picture is probably the plot of the next Spike Jonze meta-feature.
(100 to 1)
Philomena: I have no idea what this is. Also, it didn’t win the BAFTA for best British film, so the likelihood of it winning is too crazy for a Spike Jonze plot, but would be a great conspiracy theory to decorate your bunker with right before Mother Destroyer begins the Necessary Cleanse.
(Everything to 1)
12 Years a Slave: Jon Stewart looked directly at the camera before introducing his actor guest and said: “Seriously, this film is rough.” As someone who has made his name by being both flippant and human about the stupidity of the world in which we live, this sort of terse summation and the subject matter suggests that this one is both a difficult watch and a serious contender. We’ve had lighter fare movies win Best Picture three times in a row, so this is the favorite.
Because I’m not about to make light of anything with this movie or its content, I’ll tell a pretty much unrelated story. My ex-girlfriend hung out with this one guy and quickly realized he thought it was a date. Trying to mitigate without being direct, when he suggested they go to the movies, she bought tickets for “Precious.” And he still tried to make a move. During the movie. Man, guys are rotten AND stupid.
(5 to 2)
The Wolf of Wall Street: Martin Scorsese? Check. Leonardo “I don’t win, but my movies do” DiCaprio? Check. Mind-blowingly lengthy? Check. Were it not for a recent win with ‘The Departed,’ and a strange similarity to ‘American Hustle’ in terms of loose subject matter, this would be a big time contender. It still has a shot, but not the way it might have a few years ago. Scorsese’s famous eyebrows will lower in dissatisfaction when the results are read.
DiCaprio is headed for the Hall of Very Good. He’s made generally great choices in the movies he stars in, hasn’t done anything in his personal life that has diminished his esteem in the public eye, and handles lead roles well. But, really, have you ever seen him act and been blown away? What could you call his signature role? Anyway, he’s still plenty pretty and will continue to get work forever, but it’s gotta suck to be a lock for the Teen Choice Awards and snubbed by the Academy multiple times.
(5 to 1)
